Jamaica Hurricane and Weather Watch

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Most updated information on Jamaica Hurricane and weather conditions all in one place.





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Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
NHC Atlantic
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
    Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 05:39:04 GMT

    Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 03:25:50 GMT
  • Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
    ...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY APPROACHES... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -58.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 3A
    Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 180537
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
    200 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017
    
    ...WEATHER DETERIORATING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS HARVEY
    APPROACHES...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.0N 58.1W
    ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF BARBADOS
    ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Martinique
    * St. Lucia
    * Barbados
    * St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Dominica
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
    6 to 18 hours.
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 18 hours.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
    located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 58.1 West.  Harvey is
    moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a continued
    westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
    over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Harvey should
    move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
    later today.
    
    Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
    mainly to the north of the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
    Lesser Antilles within the warning area later this morning, making
    outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in the watch area later today.
    
    RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of
    2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
    Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause
    life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 180533
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Harvey, located just east of the Windward Islands.

    Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
    pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands
    continues to show signs of organization. While this system
    does not yet appear to have a closed circulation, only a slight
    increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
    depression before upper-level winds become less favorable for
    development early next week. The low is expected to move
    west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and
    interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
    progress of this disturbance.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few
    hundred miles west and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
    continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for
    some development early next week while the system moves west-
    northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
    WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
    Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
    WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 180231
    TCDAT4
    
    Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
    1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017
    
    Since an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft departed the storm a
    few hours ago, the cloud pattern of Harvey hasn't changed much.
    Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 30 kt,
    and based on the earlier aircraft measurements the current
    intensity is held at 35 kt.  The storm is in a moderate easterly
    shear environment, which should allow only slow strengthening for
    the next couple of days.  After that, the dynamical models indicate
    that a decrease in shear should occur.  As noted earlier, however,
    the GFS and ECMWF global models do not show strengthening of Harvey
    and in fact practically dissipate it during the forecast period.
    This suggests something unfavorable in the environment besides shear
    ahead of the system, perhaps some drier air or subsidence.  The
    official intensity forecast shows modest strengthening and is
    generally close to the model consensus which includes the
    statistical/dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane models
    (that do show some strengthening).
    
    The motion continues westward or 270/16.  There is no change to the
    track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory package.
    Harvey should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a
    strong mid-level ridge throughout most of the forecast period,
    which should steer the system on a continued westward track.  Near
    the end of period, the guidance suggests a slightly more northward
    motion with some deceleration.  The official forecast track is near
    the dynamical model consensus and very close to the previous NHC
    track.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  18/0300Z 13.0N  57.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  19/0000Z 13.6N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  19/1200Z 13.9N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
     72H  21/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
     96H  22/0000Z 16.0N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
    120H  23/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 180231
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
    0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
    LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
     
    MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
     
    COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
    COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
    BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
    BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
     
    PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
    PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  10(32)
    GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
    GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)
    PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
    PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
     
    SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
     
    PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
    PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
     
    ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
     
    MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
     
    KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)
     
    LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GUADELOUPE     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    AVES           34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    DOMINICA       34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    MARTINIQUE     34  3  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
     
    SAINT LUCIA    34  6  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
     
    SAINT VINCENT  34  3  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
     
    BARBADOS       34 18   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
    
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 180230
    TCMAT4
    
    TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
    0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * MARTINIQUE
    * ST. LUCIA
    * BARBADOS
    * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICA
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    12 TO 24 HOURS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
    HOURS.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.4W AT 18/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  16 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  57.4W AT 18/0300Z
    AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  56.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N  59.9W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N  63.3W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.9N  67.0W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N  85.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  57.4W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    

 

Details

Average temperatures in Jamaica range between 80 degrees Fahrenheit and 90 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius-2 degrees Celsius), with July and August being the hottest months and February the coolest. Temperatures in Jamaica generally vary approximately 10 degrees from summer to winter. Nevertheless, you should be prepared for winter in Jamaica to be slightly cooler, especially at the higher altitudes. In the mountains, the thermometer can dip to 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius).

The rainiest weather in Jamaica occurs in May and June and again in October and November and can sometimes extend into December. While the average annual rainfall is 50.7 inches, accumulation varies dramatically across the island. In contrast to the southwestern coast of Jamaica, which receives little rain and is often classified as semi barren, the eastern (windward) coast receives considerably more rain than anywhere else on the island. For the most part when it does rain in Jamaica, showers are short, heavy and followed by sunshine.

Jamaica does lie in the hurricane belt, and the official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with August and September being the peak months. However, the Caribbean region is more vast than most people think, and the chances of any single island being hit directly by a hurricane are very slim. Most often, islands will only receive the heavy rains that come on the outskirts of a hurricane, avoiding the most extreme weather conditions. Direct hits on Jamaica by major storms are so rare, in fact, that many elder Jamaican inhabitants still relate events in history to being before or after "the storm" because they may have only seen one or two of significance in their lifetimes.

Additionally, with today's meteorological technology, advanced warnings for hurricanes will reach you long before you are ever in danger, so keeping an eye on the weather in Jamaica before you leave for your vacation will go a long way toward keeping you prepared. If you hear that a hurricane has hit before you are to arrive, all is not lost. You may not have to alter your vacation at all, but do call ahead to verify current atmospheric conditions and extent of damage to the island; you may also want to get a statement from local business owners as to whether they are conducting business or when they think they will be operational again.

Last Updated on Thursday, 02 August 2012 21:43  


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Jamaican Quotes

"Mi come here fi drink milk, mi nuh come here fi count cow". A reminder to conduct business in a straightforward manner.